NBA Prop Closing Line Value (CLV) Tracker and Bet Ledger

What is being compared

One entered bet against the archive of prices we captured. The question is whether the price taken beat what the market showed later, and it is answerable entirely from published numbers -- nothing here reads a projection, a rating or an edge.

The comparison price is the best one published at the later capture, not a consensus and not the same book. That answers the strictest honest version of the question: could anyone still have given you this price at this number? A positive result means the entry beat every book on the board, not merely the one it was placed at.

The figure is expressed in implied-probability points rather than in odds. American prices are discontinuous around even money, so subtracting them overstates every move that crosses that boundary and understates none. Both raw prices ride in the payload, so nothing is hidden by the choice.

Four rules keep the number honest

  • The comparison capture must come after the bet was placed. A price captured before it is not something the bettor could have waited for, and scoring against it would report movement that had already happened.
  • The series is scoped to one event. A player is quoted every night they play, so an unscoped window would compare a Monday bet against a Wednesday line.
  • Price is only comparable at the same number. A different line at the same odds is a different bet, so the value figure is computed only against a book still quoting the entered number; the line move itself is always reported, because that comparison is valid and is usually the more interesting fact.
  • It is not called a close. The poller stops when it stops, so no market close is observed; the comparison block is dated by its own capture time and labelled that way.

When the ledger says it cannot score a bet

These are four different facts about one entry, kept apart on purpose rather than collapsed into a missing number.

Every status a ledger entry can carry, and the sentence served with it.
StatusWhat it means
scoredA later capture was found with a book still quoting the same number, so the price comparison is shown.
pendingNothing has been captured since this bet was placed, so there is no later price to compare it against yet.
no captureThe capture archive holds no quotes for this player and stat in the window -- either polling was not running, or no book we track posted it.
line unmatchedNo book was still quoting this exact number at the last capture, so there is no comparable price. The line move is shown instead.
out of windowThis bet is older than the stretch of the archive the ledger reads, so its prices were not looked up. That is a limit of this view, not a statement that nothing was captured.

Availability and price

This tool is part of the Market tier at $4.99/month. Goes live in October.

This page describes how the tool works. It carries no price, no fair-value figure and no margin: every number on it is a fixed threshold or a count read out of the product's own configuration.

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